The betting odds for Saturday’s playoff opener between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz needed a slight adjustment with the latest injury involving Luka Doncic.
The Mavericks star was diagnosed with a calf injury on Tuesday, with no return schedule.
Utah went from -3.5 to -4.5 at BetMGM afterward. DraftKings, meanwhile, moved the Jazz from -3.5 to -4 around the same time, before jumping the full point to -4.5.
BetMGM also changed the total, cutting the over/under from 215.5 to 214.5.
Doncic was injured in Sunday’s regular season finale against the San Antonio Spurs.
BREAKING: Luka Doncic has made his way to the locker room after suffering a sprained calf in the final game of the season.
It’s pretty much nonsense, but Dallas thinks it’s now a significant injury, according to ESPN.
Get well soon, Luka! 🙏 pic.twitter.com/TPwkt96jF8
— NBA Buzz (@OfficialNBABuzz) April 11, 2022
Doncic finished the regular season averaging 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game.
His 5.9 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) ranked fourth in the NBA, behind the league’s top three MVP candidates in Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.
Dallas had quietly surged in the second half, both in the win-loss column and for the betting pockets.
The Mavericks closed the regular season as the third-best bet in basketball at 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%). Only the Grizzlies and Thunder were better.
Utah is getting intriguing in the futures market with the Mavericks star sidelined for now. The price of Jazz’s consensus title is +2200, but the best available number is +2500, at three different stores (you can check all the odds here).
The Mavericks and Jazz tied the regular season series 2-2, although Dallas covered all four games.
Saturday’s Game 1 ends at 1 p.m. ET.
We’ve seen the betting market react, but how does our NBA expert Raheem Palmer adjust his projections? Let him tell us.
Palmer’s power ratings for Mavericks without Luka Doncic
The Mavericks are just 8-9 without Doncic this season, and there’s been a huge drop in offense without him.
Considering his scoring and playing combination, the Mavericks are scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor versus 111.1 with him off the floor (+4.4).
I spoke with Drew Dinsick (@whalecapper) which has Doncic’s presence on the court as being worth 4.5 points in their first-round game against the Utah Jazz and 3.5 points against the team average.
Without Doncic, the Mavericks are one point worse than the average team. With my power ratings having the Mavericks as the eighth-best team in the league, that’s a significant drop that puts them below average teams like the Charlotte Hornets and Los Angeles Clippers.
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