Things look bleak for the Jazz, but can they rally? Or will Luka Doncic help the Mavericks take a 3-1 lead? Action Network lead writer Matt Moore explains how to bet the game.
Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds
|Mavericks Odds||+5 (-110)|
|Jazz Odds||-5 (-110)|
|More less||211.5 (-110/-110)|
|Weather||4:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Keep up to date NBA Odds here.|
the Utah The Jazz lost 2-1 to the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Doncic will probably play Game 4. It’s a scary time. The Mavericks used the same scenario against Utah as most teams – knock them out with a small ball and a three-point shot. Jazz points the finger and Quin Snyder throws lineup changes against the wall.
Can Jazz Get Away With Rusty Doncic? Or will Luka Magic and Jalen Brunson go 2-0 in Salt Lake City to put the Jazz on the brink of elimination? And how about that total? Let’s bet Jazz-Mavericks Game 4.
Luka Doncic should return
There is a risk here with Doncic. Dallas needs to watch his minutes and his workload to avoid re-injuring his calf. If he’s rusty or can’t plant himself on his back jumpers, that will really inhibit his game because he’s an inconsistent shooter regardless.
What will help Doncic is Brunson’s play and Utah’s inability to counter the line-five with Maxi Kleber. The Brunson-Reggie Bullock-Kleber lineups are +21 over the past two games.
Kleber puts Gobert out of the way, Dinwiddie and Brunson attack in isolation, and the other shooters help as well. It’s simple, but brutally effective. Luka will make defending more difficult because of his ability to pass, especially in the corners.
Defensively, the Mavericks have done a great job of slowing down the Jazz, but Utah still has a high offensive rating of 116.7. The Jazz were in the middle of the pack against the Switch.
The Mavs mostly dominated the math game. Utah has the most points in the paint per 100 possessions in the playoffs so far, but they have the fewest points on turnovers and fourth-fewest in quick break points. The Mavs made it a slow, low-possession, low-variance series where they create threes and the Jazz create twos.
Jazz looking for answers
Everything I said about Utah before Game 3 is true after Game 3.
Watch this video for a minute:
Quin Snyder finally, after four years, benched Rudy Gobert for a late game stretch. The Jazz were -16 with Gobert on the ground and +8 with Gobert on the bench. At some point, you have to make the necessary adjustments no matter how much money a guy makes.
The Jazz has two options as counters:
- Eric Paschall was the option in Game 3 in a very small formation as he helps space the floor. He doesn’t solve their defensive problems, but the Jazz’ strength is their offense, and with Paschall on the ground, they can score. The Jazz had a 146 offensive rating in Game 4 with Paschall on the ground. Now, part of that was against Davis Bertans and Jason Kidd will likely be reluctant to move forward.
- Hassan Whiteside is +6 in net rating in this series, although he was -1 in Game 3 in just seven minutes. The defense is getting worse with Whiteside and playing him against Doncic could be an absolute disaster. But Whiteside can beat the Mavs inside and control the glass. He can also score on his own, which Gobert cannot do.
Utah still shoots each other in postgame pressers:
Donovan Mitchell: “It starts defensively, and everything else falls into place.” Note that the intensity of the Jazz didn’t increase until Eric Paschall recorded himself.
— Eric Walden (@tribjazz) April 22, 2022
Mitchell needs to come up with something in this series, but the Mavs have him locked up and there aren’t great options for him to attack in the switches. The only chance Utah has in Game 4 is if Mitchell has a big rebound performance.
Mavericks – Jazz Pick
This line opened Jazz -4.5 and was moved to Jazz -5 despite the Action Network app money and tickets on the Mavericks. There seems to be a strong feeling about Utah.
The line is interesting for several reasons. The line was Jazz -8 without Luka. When reports surfaced Doncic could play on Tuesday, the line moved to 6.5. Basically the bookmakers halved it and let the market decide if they thought Doncic would play. When he was kicked out, he closed Mavs +8 again.
Now, with Doncic likely to play, he moved the full three points to Jazz -5.
Doncic, who is coming out of an injury, is he worth three points? This is what you need to determine. For me, it’s a little simpler. Utah covered Game 1 with one point. The Mavericks have adjusted.
Since 2017, Utah is 2-6 ATS after a playoff loss by GimmeTheDog.com. The two victories? In the match 2 bubble against the Nuggets before the Nuggets adjusted in Game 5 and Game 2 against the grizzly bears, who were beaten last season.
Once things go downhill for Utah, they usually go fast.
More than Dallas +5, however, I like the most. Over bets are 2-1 in this series and have cashed in consecutive games. The kick in Game 1 when A) Luka Doncic was out and B) both Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson had struggled. Brunson played and Doncic is back. The tactical adjustment for Utah is to go small, which encourages worse defense and better offense.
Expect more threes and even if Dallas doesn’t hit at its typical high pace, Utah is likely to catch up.
I will also be on Gobert unders believing the Jazz thinks they have found something with the small lineups.
To take: Over 212 | Rudy Gobert less than 29.5 PTS +REB + AST 29.5 (-120) | Skinny: Dallas +5