Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds

Mavericks Odds +1.5
Jazz ratings -1.5
More less 209.5
Weather 10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Keep up to date NBA Odds here.

Some games feature turning points for franchises. This game feels like that moment for the Utah Jazz. They thought they could have had such a moment in Game 4 after a thrilling victory on a lob from Donovan Mitchell to Rudy Gobert.

But the surge was short-lived. The Dallas Mavericks erased the Jazz from the field in Game 5. Now, with the line fluctuating after conflicting news about Mitchell’s injury, the question is no longer one of tactical adjustments, but of a team’s collective will.

Has the Jazz been understood? Is this the end of an era? And how to take advantage of it? Let’s bet Mavericks-Jazz.

Mavericks have multiple matching perks

Dallas is getting 28.8 ppg in this series with 3-pointers. The Jazz are averaging 13.6 per Synergy Sports. This gap is huge.

Overall, the Mavs create about the same quality of looks as the Jazz for the series.

What’s interesting is that in the Mavericks’ three wins, Dallas has created a worse look on catch shots than Utah based on expected field goal percentage (taking into account shooter, level contest and location based on Second Spectrum data provided to Action Network).

Catch-and-Shoot Opportunities in Mavericks Wins – Round 1

eFG% eFG% expected Differential
Dallas Mavericks 71 58 12.92
Utah Jazz 50 61 -10.76

When the Jazz lost games, they created a better appearance but just couldn’t hit the water if they fell out of a boat. And when the Mavs won, they shot extremely hot.

Now make or miss league aside, this hides some of the mechanics involved. It’s a “slightly disputed” look for example. Maxi Kleber is 3 of 5 of 3 uncontested in this series, Dorian Finney-Smith is 4 of 9. These are high percentage opportunities that they are absolutely crazy about.

Jalen Brunson has been absolute molten lava in this series, hitting everything. The situation has escalated with Luka Doncic on the pitch.

The Jazz can’t fall pick-and-roll against Doncic, they’ll eat them alive with short floaters and jumpers, plus the lob, although Utah is excellent in this coverage.

The numbers are actually good in a short amount of this series, but look how much place Doncic has in space on this game. You don’t want to give him so many options.

The Jazz also cannot switch to pick-and-roll. Mitchell is expected to play – he switched bait when he was healthy, and now he’s stoned. Prior to Doncic’s return, the Mavericks did a great job of targeting Mitchell pick-and-roll.

Doncic has been a little bold with his target choices, but if they have to go, they can. Conley also made barbecue chicken. Utah also can’t send two level against Doncic. It’s their favorite tactic and man it’s bad. Gobert just can’t contain it up there.

The Jazz gave up 1.2 points per possession trying to play level against Doncic. It’s a catastrophe. There just aren’t many good options for them. The Mavericks, to their credit, got them pretty well.

All the Mavericks need to do is stick to the game plan, hit shots (which admittedly can be tough on the road) and exploit their advantages and they should be able to wrap things up.

Jazz needs epic games from unlikely sources

Mitchell is likely to play, which is admirable. The Jazz are going to have to win this game with their offense. They don’t have the staff to get saves, so it’s going to have to be offensive.

If the Jazz want to win this, Danuel House and Jordan Clarkson need to have long minutes and big games. Read that sentence again and consider which team you want to bet on.

Over the past four years, the Jazz have been easy to solve, and once they were solved in a playoff series, that series changed dramatically.

Since Dallas adjusted with Kleber playing more and distributing the Jazz in Game 2, Dallas has trailed the Jazz by 38 points and their only loss in four games was a run on a buzzer-beater.

Utah has been resolved.

Mavericks – Jazz Pick

The road favorites in Game 6 are 28-11-1 ATS (71.8%) and 31-9 straight. The Mavericks opened as 3-point dogs in Game 6, before a first report on Donovan Mitchell and the money traded it to Mavs -2. Then Mitchell was judged and as of this writing the Mavs are +0.5.

Teams listed as 2-or-under favorites against 1-point dogs in Game 6 are 10-5-1 ATS (67%).

The signal is quite clear. The market overvalues ​​the home field in a home game 6 against a better team. I don’t think the Jazz should be favored, and I don’t think they can win this series.

The Jazz playing so level on Doncic invites some props. Doncic’s assist prop is 7.5. He had just five assists in the dominating Game 5 victory in less than 33 minutes. It’s likely to increase a bit as the Jazz commit to trying to get the ball out of his hands.

Dwight Powell’s points and assists are just 7.5 and I think there’s a good chance he plays a bit more in this one because of his chemistry with Doncic. If the Jazz are going to send two to Doncic, the best counter is the short game and Powell is better than Kleber.

Finally, Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging 2.6 of 3 per game in this series and his prop is 2.5, under pressure. He’ll likely turn away from that cover with Doncic back.

If you’re reading all of this and still want the Jazz, I like the Jazz team total of 104.5. I don’t particularly like waiting for adjustments from coaches, and Quin Snyder has completely abandoned the small ball approach that worked for them in Game 3.

But if they win this game, it’s because they have accumulated points. The team total is 1-4 in this series, but that’s the only realistic adjustment you can expect from Utah.

To take: Mavs ML (-108 or better) | Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists | Dwight Powell Over 7.5 points + assists | Dorian Finney-Smith Over 2.5 3 points | Skinny: Jazz Team Total Over 104.5